Roger Sutton- Recent aftershocks | Canterbury Opinion | Local Voices from Canterbury, New Zealand

A swarm of aftershocks over Christmas-New Year and centred mostly in Pegasus Bay has raised new questions about Christchurch's future, especially from commentators outside the region.  

A Dunedin City Councillor suggested resources should go to transforming Dunedin into the new South Island hub, while an equally misinformed overseas blog-site said Christchurch might not exist within 10 or 20 years.   

Of course, these statements are insignificant when compared to thousands of positive messages from around the world about the rebuild, including a December photo essay in the influential United States magazine and website Foreign Policy which ranked Christchurch as one of the 16 world cities to watch, under a heading: From Singapore to Christchurch, the urban centers that are shaping the next century .The magazine says of Christchurch: A  massive rebuilding effort is a unique opportunity to rethink urban form.   

This week, in an online article, Lonely Planet labelled Christchurch one of New Zealand's most exciting cities, saying researchers visited three times since the 22 February earthquake - including two weeks recently - and were impressed by what they saw.   

History backs such optimistic views. San Francisco for example suffered a 7.1 earthquake in 1989 causing more than $6 billion of property loss but is now one of the top tourist destinations in the world, ranking 33rd out of the 100 most visited cities anywhere. It is also the second most-densely populated large city in the United States after New York.   

Closer to home, the 7.9 earthquake on February 3, 1931 in Napier flattened its business centre but despite the Great Depression of the time, there was huge residential expansion - in the face of pessimists who called on authorities to abandon the city or forecast people will never return. Napier reached city status of 20,000 in 1950 and now has a population nearly three times that much.  

Although scientists are still studying our recent aftershocks, history also tells us clusters of earthquakes in any particular area will fade over time. In Napier, aftershocks continued for months and people moved to refugee camps. But within two years the city was rebuilt with safer buildings - many in the 1930s art deco style. Most of central Napier's shops had reopened by late 1932 and the city had a New Napier celebration in January 1933.  

While of course the task is greater in a city the size of Christchurch, we're as determined as most of Napier's citizens were to rebuild and to improve. Nothing in the recent aftershock sequence suggests doing otherwise.

On the webpage http://www.geonet.org.nz/news/archives/2011/dec-23-2011-christchurch-hit-again-at-christmas.html GNS Science says over subsequent weeks frequent jolts are expected, gradually decaying away over a period of several  months.  

So while I understand anxiety about aftershocks, after all we have been through in the past 16 months, I urge residents to put them into perspective. Recent 'quakes amount to a bump in the recovery road while the main focus should be on the future - draft plans for example which forecast a people-friendly city, with a CBD including a new network of parks and other public spaces, innovative new buildings, a covered market and free WiFi.   

Aftershocks won't stop Christchurch becoming one of the safest, environmentally-friendly and exciting cities to live in and an urban model for the world, or in the words of Foreign Policy, a city which will help in shaping the next century.